Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents

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dc.contributor.authorThieken, Annegret H.
dc.contributor.authorBubeck, Philip
dc.contributor.authorHeidenreich, Anna
dc.contributor.authorVon Keyserlingk, Jennifer
dc.contributor.authorDillenardt, Lisa
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Antje
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-02T15:07:56Z
dc.date.available2024-05-02T15:07:56Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractAbstract. In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling into question their flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey (n=1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned, 85 % did not expect very severe flooding and 46 % reported a lack of situational knowledge on protective behaviour. Regression analysis reveals that this knowledge is influenced not only by gender and flood experience but also by the content and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Still, the share of people who did not report any emergency response is low and comparable to other flood events. However, the perceived effectiveness of the protective behaviour was low and mainly compromised by high water levels and the perceived level of surprise about the flood magnitude. Good situational knowledge and a higher number of previously experienced floods were linked to performing more effective loss-reducing action. Dissemination of warnings, clearer communication of the expected flood magnitude and recommendations on adequate responses to a severe flood, particularly with regard to flash and pluvial floods, are seen as major entry points for improving the FFWRS in Germany.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe presented work was initially developed within the framework of the research project “Urban resilience against extreme weather events – typologies and transfer of adaptation strategies in small metropolises and medium-sized cities” (Ex-Trass) funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, FKZ 01LR1709A1) in collaboration with the Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange) funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; GRK 2043/2). Further analyses were performed in the framework of the project “Governance and communication during the crisis of the flood event in July 2021” (HoWas2021) funded by BMBF (FKZ 13N16230).
dc.identifier.citationThieken, A. H., Bubeck, P., Heidenreich, A., Von Keyserlingk, J., Dillenardt, L., & Otto, A. (2023). Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(2), 973–990. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
dc.identifier.issn1684-9981
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.weizenbaum-library.de/handle/id/674
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsopen access
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titlePerformance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.statuspublishedVersion
dcmi.typeText
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.urlhttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023
local.researchgroupDigitalisierung und vernetzte Sicherheit
local.researchtopicDigitale Infrastrukturen in der Demokratie
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