Agenda formation and prediction of voting tendencies for European parliament election using textual, social and network features

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Datum
2024
Herausgeber:innen
Autor:innen
Shahi, Gautam Kishore
Basyurt, Ali Sercan
Stieglitz, Stefan
Neuberger, Christoph
Zeitschriftentitel
ISSN der Zeitschrift
Bandtitel
Verlag
Springer
Zusammenfassung

As per agenda-setting theory, political agenda is concerned with the government’s agenda, including politicians and political parties. Political actors utilize various channels to set their political agenda, including social media platforms such as Twitter (now X). Political agenda-setting can be influenced by anonymous user-generated content following the Bright Internet. This is why speech acts, experts, users with affiliations and parties through annotated Tweets were analyzed in this study. In doing so, the agenda formation during the 2019 European Parliament Election in Germany based on the agenda-setting theory as our theoretical framework, was analyzed. A prediction model was trained to predict users’ voting tendencies based on three feature categories: social, network, and text. By combining features from all categories logistical regression leads to the best predictions matching the election results. The contribution to theory is an approach to identify agenda formation based on our novel variables. For practice, a novel approach is presented to forecast the winner of events.

Beschreibung
Schlagwörter
2019 European parliament election · Social media analytics · User’s voting prediction · Agenda-setting theory · Political agenda
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Verwandte Ressource
Zitierform
Shahi, G. K., Basyurt, A. S., Stieglitz, S., & Neuberger, C. (2024). Agenda formation and prediction of voting tendencies for European parliament election using textual, social and network features. Information Systems Frontiers. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10796-024-10568-w